Canada may hop on the American bandwagon...

Stephen Harper's Conservative government has rarely been one to budge in the face of opposition, even as a minority government. When the Canadian public, international organizations and even the United States brought an issue to the table, Harper's government has usually been quick to quash it or simply ignore it.

Climate change policy has often fell victim to Harper's my-way-or-the-highway approach. But legislation being tabled in the United States could change that. The bill would impose border duties (tariffs) on products coming into the United States from countries whose climate change policies are deemed to be too lax. 

Canada, with its sneaky intensity-based measurements and laughable overall GHG reduction targets, would fall under the rules of the new legislation.

It strikes me that this type of legislation might have implications under NAFTA, or at least the WTO, two free trade agreements that Harper is usually quick to reference. But the initial reaction from the Harper camp has not been one of disagreement, but one of conciliation. Jim Prentice, the federal Minister of the Environment has conceded that Canada must now adopt climate change strategies "comparable" to those that will be passed in the United States.

This brings up an important point. As it stands, the United States has no large, formal strategies or policies for combating climate change, despite the heavy rhetoric of the Obama administration. Considering Obama's political power these days, it is expected that something will get passed relatively soon.

He favours a national Cap-and-trade system (something Canada would be smart to partner with), but getting this passed through Congress might be an uphill battle, even for him. This is because a cap-and-trade system would severely hinder the coal industry and particularly the Midwestern states reliant on that industry. To Obama's dismay, these states are largely Democrat, so upsetting them would not bode well politically. As a result, a hefty portion of Democrats are prepared to shoot down any proposed cap-and-trade system.

So you would think that with such an unlikely chance of the bill getting through that the usually staunch Harperites wouldn't take it seriously? Well, somehow or other they've opened their eyes and can see the writing on the wall. 

Obama is powerful and lots of people like him, including Canadians. The cap-and-trade system will eventually get passed in the U.S. (even if it's slightly watered down), probably before December during the post-Kyoto conference in Copenhagen. And NAFTA disputes tend to warrant in the favour of the United States. He and his policies are fairly dangerous to oppose, especially as the popularity of the Harper government slowly falls.

Clearly, conceding to the potential rules is a political move by the Tories, but environmentalists can applaud such a move. For once, having a government that seeks to mirror our older sibling to the South may actually be beneficial.