The Economic Impacts of Climate Change for Canada

From the National Round Table on the Environment and the Economy (NRT):

"Climate change could be expensive for Canada. Unless global greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions are brought down and Canada invests in adaptation, the economic impacts of climate change on Canada could climb to billions of dollars per year.

Those are the conclusions of a new report of the National Round Table on the Environment and the Economy called Paying the Price: The Economic Impacts of Climate Change for Canada. This is the first national-level study assessing the economic impacts of climate change on Canada.

We found that the costs of impacts could range from $5 billion per year in 2020 to between $21 billion and $43 billion per year in 2050, depending on global greenhouse gas emissions and domestic economic and population growth. There are also risks that costs could be much higher – for example, there is a 5% chance of costs exceeding $91B per year in the 2050s with high climate change and rapid socioeconomic development".

More about the report here.

NOx standards on new vehicles in LA

In the summer I listened to an EconTalk podcast with Prof. Robert Frank of Cornell University. The podcast can be listened to here. Consider this statement from Robert Frank:

"In Los Angeles, in order to meet the air quality targets they were shooting for, they had to adopt stringent nitrous oxide (NOx) requirements on new vehicles because they were unwilling to have old vehicles comply with the pollution requirements--mostly low income drivers drive the old vehicles and it was thought to be too onerous to require them to comply. So we ratcheted up the requirements on the new cars to meet the target and it was about $900 a pound to get all the NOx out of new cars--all the low-hanging fruit had already been picked in that domain--so for the inevitable democratic impulse to shield poor people from hardship we ended up spending $900/pound to get NOx out of the air, whereas if we had forced older vehicles to come into compliance we could have gotten that same pound out for $10. Way cheaper over all if we'd taxed wealthy motorists in California a little bit extra and given a voucher to poor motorists, who would turn in their old cars and buy a 5-year old Toyota Corolla or some other compliant vehicle."

The example above relates to the content of a class I am taking called "Environmental Policy Analysis".We talked today about pollution standards and how they could be inherently more inefficient in terms of social and economic costs. If we wanted to improve air quality for everyone (using the LA example), then it would be more sensible to tax the wealthier motorists so that enough money could be re-distributed to lower-income drivers to purchases cars that are less intensive in terms of NOx. This would be a much less expensive way to alleviate pernicious pollutants that cause respiratory illnesses. Standards are helpful but when considering overall economic costs, there are more efficient and equitable ways of doing it. Yes, this is also a political game, but political games such as these ones can make everyone worse off.

More to come on risk management, environmental policy and how to improve decisions that make everyone better off.

An Integrated Planning Approach to Climate Change Adaptation

I will be presenting my research at the Eighth International Conference on Environmental, Cultural, Economic and Social Sustainability in January 2012. The conference will be held at the Robson Square, University of British Columbia, Vancouver, Canada from 10 to 12 January 2012.

My title is "An Integrated Planning Approach to Climate Change Adaptation: Exploring the Water Sector in Canada". My abstract is below and has been slightly revised since. But here is the gist:

Through my internship with the Pacific Institute for Climate Solutions, I have been exploring strategies and best practices surrounding climate change adaptation in the water sector in Canada and abroad. Interest in adaptation could not come at a more important time as various academics and practitioners are pressuring the Canadian government to reconsider a more holistic and robust water policy. Given the complexity and uncertainty surrounding climate change, adaptation must take a holistic and pro-active approach to consider environmental and economic strategies that will help us adapt today to bring a more promising tomorrow. Through a literature review, content analysis, and the use of social media, my project develops a planning guide based on best practices in the water sector that the federal government could use to make decisions on how fund or assist communities with their adaptation plans.

The intended results are to complement the growing national movement calling for a Canadian water policy. Through contacting professionals in the water field along with raising awareness of the value of water through social media, this project will engage various perspectives and beliefs - all of which are critical for creating robust adaptation plans with a supportive national water policy.

U.S. partisan divide over the causes of global warming

Stories in 2011 concering the debate about what causes global warming are always supremely entertaining for me. Check out this story from the Environmental Economics blog:

"37% of Democrats believe global warming is the result primarily of human action, while only 14% of Republicans believe this. Conversely, 43% of Republicans believe global warming is the result of natural causes, up from 35% in 2010. Self-identified Tea Party members display still more certainty (49%) that global warming is caused by natural events".

More here.

An introduction to ecological economics

I am taking a course this term with Professor Bill Rees. Bill Rees is renowned for co-creating the Ecological Footprint concept back in the mid-1990s. Bill is also a distinguished professor in my graduate program (SCARP).

The course I am taking with Bill is all about about ecological economics. In short, ecological economics is about treating the economy as a subsystem of the ecosystem and has an emphasis upon preserving natural capital.

Here is short and informative introduction to the discipline.

A great article on financially sustainable mass transit systems

David Levinson is Professor of Transportation Engineering at the University of Minnesota. He blogs at The Transportationist. Check out his post on some ideas on how to achieve financially sustainable mass transit systems. Many cities around the world recognize that transit is an indispensable component of greening their cities. Transit brings a number of benefits with the obvious environmental gains being shown through decreased carbon emissions per capita in the transportation sector.

The real challenge being faced by transit agencies around the world is financing their systems. They have to overcome a lot of inefficiencies that are embedded in the system (often created by local governments). Levinson has some good ideas. Here is the start of his post:

"Mass transit systems in the United States are collectively losing money hand over fist. Yet many individual routes (including bus routes) earn enough to pay their own operating (and even capital costs). But like bad mortgages contaminating the good, money-losing transit routes are bogging down the system."

More here.

Links on climate change adaptation

Multidisciplinary team led by Indiana University professor Elinor Ostrom to conduct research on impact of climate change, capacity for adaptation.

For those who do not know Elinor Ostrom (2009 Nobel Laureate in Economic Sciences for her analysis of economic governance,) see here.

How to pursue policies that are based on climate change adaptation and mitigation to yield benefits in both camps.

Tim Jackson on prosperity without growth

Jackson says "prosperity consists in our ability to flourish as human beings within the ecological limits of a finite planet".

More here.

Private cities in the developing world

The idea sounds completely absurd but private cities are ostensibly taking off in many developing countries. Marginal Revolution tells the story here.

"Private cities are happening now for a reason. Africa, India, and China are urbanizing more rapidly than has ever occurred in human history. In Africa, the number of urban dwellers is projected to increase by nearly 400 million, in India at least 250 million will move to cities and in China more than 400 million will move to cities in just the next 20 years... The rising middle-class want to live in first-world cities and in many of these countries only the private sector can deliver those cities".

Private cities will surely provide the much desired amentities and infrastructure for those that can afford it, but I worry about the inequality and complete exclusion that can emerge from this. Yes, these cities can probably help places urbanize and provide what Jane Jacobs would call "multiplicity of choice". But if the benefits and opportunities are overwhelmingly concentrated in them -- while neglecting other places in the city -- there could be severe ramifications.

The transit funding discussion continues in Metro Vancouver

A recent article in the Globe and Mail titled "Transit advocates launch campaign for property-tax hike" adds to the hitherto highly mixed discussion regarding funding for TransLink, the regional transportation authority for Metro Vancouver.

The article makes reference to a group in Vancouver called the Sustainable Transportation Coalition:

"An influential group of planners, architects, and environmentalists is launching a campaign this week to persuade hesitant Metro Vancouver mayors to commit to property-tax increases in order to kick-start a plan for massive transit expansion."

The group favours a hike in property taxes to pay for transit, but they have also echoed support for using revenues from the carbon tax and road pricing as well. Here is some information about the funding plan that is going to be voted on within the next month among the 22 mayors in Metro Vancouver:

"The plan, which is a supplement to TransLink’s basic operating budget, would raise $700-million over 10 years. That would provide TransLink’s share for the long-delayed Evergreen Line in the northeast. It would also provide another $300-million for other major improvements, including a bus on King George in Surrey, a Highway 1 express bus for Langley commuters, and an extra SeaBus for the North Shore".

Whichever funding alternatives gets the green light, this will be a momentous decision for transit in Metro Vancouver for the future.

Coping with a drought in Central Texas

This article from the NY Times tells a story of how Llano, Texas is coping with a water drought.

"Government has always had a hard time telling Texans how to live. But the ban on most types of outdoor watering has been embraced by people in Llano, where a kind of World War II-era rationing spirit has become a way of life."

Residents are taking several innovative steps to conserve water and make use with as little as possible. Alas, there is no discussion about water pricing. Texas, like many southern states, is subject to droughts. Implementing pricing measures to reflect water scarcity would go a long way in helping communities like Llano adapt to climate change. All this would mean is that when there are droughts and water supplies are limited, a pricing structure would be in place to reflect how much water there is. As droughts portend limited water, prices would be high and would theoretically send a signal to households to use less.

A radical SuperFreakonomics story has come to fruition

A year ago, I blogged about a famous book called "SuperFreakonomics" by Steven Levitt and Stephen Dubner (read my review here). One chapter in their book titled "What Do Al Gore and Mount Pinatubo Have in Common?" is all about solutions to climate change. In this chapter, Levitt and Dubner specifically embrace geo-engineering solutions which are highly controversial in climate change circles. One of the wild and far fetched geo-engineering ideas reported, evidently thought of by Intellectual Ventures, is the garden hose to the sky:

"A team of British researchers called SPICE (Stratospheric Particle Injection for Climate Engineering) is trying to pump particles of water into the atmosphere as a test run before moving onto sulfates and aerosols that would reflect sunlight away from earth, mimicking the aftereffect of a massive volcanic eruption. SPICE is building the garden hose at an undisclosed location, with £1.6 million in U.K. government funding and the backing of the Royal Society".

Essentially a long garden hose from the Earth would pump sulfur dioxide into the stratosphere to allow for a cooling effect. 

Sound a little nuts to you? This is one of many geo-engineering ideas out there. Amid the ambivalence about how to mitigate GHGs and adapt to climate change, geo-engineering nerds and fanatics are proposing solutions that, while controversial on the surface, may have some merit if we explore our curiosities and gamble with risks. I am skeptical of geo-engineering myself but am interested nonetheless.

More about this here.