An Oil Sands Pipeline and Obama's Decision...

One of North America's largest and most lucrative petroleum pipeline projects is awaiting the decision from the USA's commander-in-chief. As outlined by the Globe & Mail, TransCanada Corp's Keystone XL pipeline would extend from oil sands-rich Alberta to the gulf coast of Texas, a hub of the American oil industry. Opponents charge that the project will only increase GHG emissions, put entire ecosystems and water sources at risk, and put another significant damper on an already struggling yet budding renewable energy industry.

Image: Pipelines International

The developers are ready to go and with little protest coming from governments north of the border, the project is only awaiting the key approvals from various US authorities. The State Department is expected to release its report over the next couple of months, but the growing consensus is that the report will be supportive of the project.

And so, those of the environmentalist ilk will have to hope that their last line of defence will come through in the clutch: Obama. The Department of Energy and the Environmental Protection Agency have grounds to appeal any State Department decision to the president himself, ultimately leaving Obama to approve the proposal, reject it or even slow it down by requiring further study. This has many environmentalists feeling very optimistic. But what they do not know is which Obama will come to the table. Will it be the 2008 campaigning Obama that promised to create a green economy, refuse imports of 'dirty oil' and even considered reopening NAFTA? Or will they get the more centrist Obama that, primarily under political duress, has had to steer many of his policies to the right in order to keep everyone happy?




Things don't look all that great. For the past couple of years, Obama has had to keep many of his environmental ambitions on the back burner. The economy, jobs and health care dominated his attention, while major Republican gains in Congress have all but sunk the most ambitious policies, such as the coveted cap-and-trade system. Save for the temporary shut down of drilling in the Gulf following the disastrous BP spill, Obama's environmental policies haven't exactly lived up to the expectations created during his campaign.

Things, however, could be looking up. As we roll into general election season, policies may take a bit of a turn. Obama, keen to reignite the left-leaning base that helped him get elected in 2008, may begin taking more progressive stands on policies. For example, he recently took a major about-face on his stance towards same-sex marriage, opting to support it. This was considered as much a political decision to please his relatively apathetic left wing base as it was a personal change of heart. Much of the Democrat's "shellacking" that took place in November had to do with Democrats simply not showing up the same way they did for Obama's victory in 2008. If he wants a second term as president, he'll need to get his base energetic and believing again, and a strong stance against the pipeline could prove to do just that.

But as oil and gas prices continue to climb because of conflicts in the Middle East, he might scare off many voters if he decides to scrap a project that could bring more secure oil to the US, particularly independent voters, which are widely considered to be the key to winning an election.

It's a shame that such decisions are fuelled by politics, but that's just the way it is. My gut is telling me the project will be approved, but things can get whacky as we enter election season.